Pools
Every market has a Yes pool and a No pool. Total pool = Yes pool + No pool.
Odds
Yes odds = Yes pool / (Yes pool + No pool). No odds = 1 minus Yes odds. A market with 60 USDC on Yes and 40 USDC on No shows Yes 60% and No 40%.
Payout formula
Your payout = your stake + (your stake / winning pool) x (losing pool minus fee). Fee = 1% of the total pool, capped at the losing pool.
Worked example
- Yes pool: 60 USDC. No pool: 40 USDC. Total pool: 100 USDC.
- You bet 6 USDC on Yes (included in the 60).
- The market resolves Yes.
- Your share of the Yes pool: 6 / 60 = 10%.
- Fee for the market: 1% of 100 = 1 USDC. Your share of it: 10% = 0.1 USDC.
- Payout: 6 + 10% x (40 minus 1) = 9.9 USDC.
- You receive 9.9 USDC. Profit: 3.9 USDC.
Payout calculator
Your stake is counted inside the pool for your side.
Yes odds60%
Est. payout9.9 USDC
Fee (1%)0.1 USDC
Profit3.9 USDC
Odds move
Your estimated payout is based on the pool right now. If more people bet on your side, your share shrinks. If more bet against you, it grows. Your final payout is only known once the market locks.
Early vs late
Betting early on the side that ends up less popular tends to pay more. Betting late on the crowded side pays less. That is the nature of pools.
Edge cases
| Situation | Result |
|---|---|
| Winning side wins, losing pool is empty | Everyone is refunded in full, no fee |
| Only one side ever received bets | Everyone is refunded in full, no fee |
| Market is void | Everyone is refunded in full, no fee |
| Rounding | Payouts are rounded down to the smallest USDC unit. Dust stays in the market vault |
NoteThe fee is taken only when there is a real winner and a real loser. Refunds are always fee free.